What is coming: Dreams or nightmares?
Is your dream gadget is on its way? What is the dream gadget, if there is one?
Like all the other dreams, we have our own dreams, which remain dreams. The pessimist will claim that only nightmares come true.
In the field of computers, both can be true.
My dream is to have a computer, which I can trust. That it will always be there when I need it, do faithfully what I want done and nothing else, not make me worry about the security of my information, financial resources and privacy.
What I do not want is a flashy object with which I can dazzle my acquaintances. Not enter into specification contests.
In other words, all I need is a tool to do my work.
So, what is coming over the horizon in that area? If I repeat my dream, that dream has already been fulfilled for years. That is because I have a specific set of requirements, which can easily be met with what had existed for the last couple of decades.
Is that the case with us all?
Computers are as commonplace as cars, mobile phones, satellite navigators, TVs, video recorders, microwave ovens and so on. It is not easy to predict what could materialize tomorrow that could take us by complete surprise.
TVs, computer monitors have made a complete switchover to new technology from cathode ray tubes (CRT) to solid-state panels. Computers made their technological jump from valves to solid-state circuitry in the 60's. Computers have been shrinking its size ever since. Speeds also have gone up almost exponentially. The prices also have come down enormously.
Now, what can be the next? Forecasting is not easy. I would try to give an idea of what is coming in each field at the end of this page.
I think, it will be easier if we break the problem to manageable chunks.
We could start by breaking the scene into three broad areas: Hardware, Software, Communication and External Services. I will leave security and privacy to a separate discussion.
In the area of hardware, I mean the electronic box. What does it contain?
A processor, memory, circuit cards and sockets to connect to computer monitor, disk drives, CD/DVD recorders and players, audio devices, mouse, keyboard, scanners, USB devices, Web cameras, graphic tablets, communication cables, printers, scanners, fax machines, sometimes even coffee cup warmers. With the so-called lap-top machines monitor is part of the box.
It is a long list!
In the software area, what do we see?
The operating system is the most important. Then comes your text processing, Internet browsing, e-mailing, photo editing software. Over and above all these are the numerous bits of software you collect over the years, PLUS of course your games!
In the communication area, it could be one of a cable connection, or a wireless connection to connect you to the Internet, and/or to your local/in house network.
What I call the External Services area is not so obvious. Not yet, anyway.
This is a fast developing area, which has attracted the attention of big players by the possibility of raking in billions at the expense of unsuspecting consumers. This idea has surfaced on small blips here and there but has failed to catch on so far.
The basic idea is for a company to offer software for a fee and undertake to manage the users' data also for a fee, located on their computer systems. The idea once surfaced under the title "grid computing" and died a quiet death. Now, the same basic idea is reappearing under the title: Cloud Computing.
As the name suggests, it is a cloud, which has the potential for smothering all of us. Big sharks in the industry like Microsoft, Google plus others, seeing the money potential, are already trying to segment the "market", which is you and I, and smoothly setting the scene for their wares.
What is the biggest "selling point" for this technology? To ease the computer users of the hassle of maintaining their software and data. We all know, and have got accustomed to tolerate the poor quality of the software dumped on us. And also the problems of securing our data for the same reasons. Now, the perpetrators dressed up as angels are coming to take us all to computing heaven!
Implications are horrific. You end up being at the mercy of a handful, or even less, service provider oligarchs. Once you surrender your software needs to them, you leave yourself at their mercy. They will dictate what you shall have, and how much you should pay. Once you handover your data, imagine what can happen! Given the poor reliability of the software, your data may never be private, nor be safe.
Now, who is pushing this idea, apart from the big boys? Computer professionals! The support seems universal.
One cannot ignore the markets. In the world of technology, in computer-related technologies in particular, the classical Keynesian economics of demand and supply does not seem to be in force.
Big players make the products, and rouse up the population with their products, thereby creating the markets. The most recent example is the arrival of hand-held computers, which from a practical point of view has no visible use. The marketing hype is so strong that to be seen without one is now socially too risky.
We need to be on our guard!
Now, to what is hovering on the horizon:
The following information was collected on 13-02-2009, and it will be kept updated as I come across new developments. Please watch this space!
| Processors: Intel |
Multi-core processors. 16-core processors on the horizon. More: http://nl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lijst_van_Intel-processors |
| Processors - AMD |
As above. More: http://www.computermemoryupgrade.net/types-of-computer-memory-common-uses.html |
| Memories |
As above. More: http://www.computermemoryupgrade.net/types-of-computer-memory-common-uses.html |
| Storage - Internal |
IDE drives being phased out. SATA becoming standard. |
| Storage - External |
External disc drives, now >1TB, connectivity: LAN/USB Fast coming up: Solid State Discs; Internal and external |
| Monitors |
LCD screens, ever improving brightness, viewing angles, resolution, refresh rates, size: 21inch becoming standard, aspect: wide screen becoming standard. Possibility of 3-D monitors. |
| Keyboards | Hardly likely to change. |
| Mouse | Fundamentally hardly likely to change; connectivity: fast becoming optical (laser). |
| Audio | Surround sound - 5.1 channel - becoming standard. |
| Video/TV |
Adaptors for viewing digital TV Multi-purpose TVs - functioning as computer monitors as well as TVs. |
| Graphics | Graphic processors fast approaching main processor speeds, rendering improving all the time. |
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Windows Family These run on Intel and AMD processors. |
Windows Vista: About 50 million lines of code. This is the Microsoft's blatant but sad attempt to emulate Apple OS-X Windows 7: The OS that will rescue the image of Microsoft, already dubbed "Vista II". Windows XP: People refuse to upgrade to Windows Vista. Microsoft changed their policy by extending support and allowing downgrading from Vista to XP. Windows 2000: So far the most reliable. Enterprises still use it, in spite of the fact that support officially ceased in 2007. My preferred Windows OS! Windows ME: A problem prone patch to get over the millennium problem. Windows 98SE: Supported USB, among other things. Still in use in places! Windows 98: Haven't much to say about this OS. Windows 95: Set the basics of user interface as seen even now. The best Windows operating system according to none other than Bill Gates himself. |
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Apple OS family These now run on Intel processors. |
Now allows dual-boot options, which allow Windows XP and Vista operating systems to run in the OS-X environment. This option clears a hurdle which prevented people from switching to Apple computers, because of the limited availability of software in the market - for purchase, as well as free. Now, any Windows software packet can run in an Apple machine!!! |
Linux family These run on Intel and AMD processors. |
Many flavours. Ubuntu V8.10 (Feb 2009) is the current favourite. IBM's OS of choice for their Microsoft-free desktops. |
Virtualisation These are designed to run on Intel and AMD processors. |
Software packages that allows any OS to run in any other OS, like Windows on Apple OS-X systems, in other words, facilitate multi-OS computers. Much is being published in the publishing world about these, which are now expected to provide the backbone for the forthcoming "Cloud Computing" technology. |
| "Office" packages |
Microsoft Office packages: Office 2007 (Feb 2009) Open Source Packages: OpenOffice 3.0.1 (Feb 2009) |
| Popular Browsers |
Internet Explorer: V7.0 Firefox:V3.06 (Feb 2009) |
| ADSL |
ADSL2+: can deliver up to 24 Mbit/s, depending on the distance. In 2007, Dr. John Papandriopoulos, a researcher at Melbourne School of Engineering, University of Melbourne, patented algorithms that can potentially boost DSL line speeds to a maximum of 250 Mbit/s. |
| Cable | Theoretically support up to about 30 Mbps, |
| Wi-Fi | IEEE 802.11n standard: 200+ Mbps (Over the air) |
| Mobile | 3.6Mbps (HSPDA services) |
| Routers | row 3 Cell 2 |
| Wired LAN | Speeds of 10/100/1000Mbps now available |
| Wired LAN Switches | Speeds of 10/100/1000Mbps now available |